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Well that will teach me....
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The fella and had a lazy Saturday, leading to a server full afternoon.
Oh 1017, you go so well with lunch... maybe at 1pm we can go have tea together, that would be nice. We could invite the fella, but no..... his worlds aren't loading and the game has asked him to move to Japan...
It will be just you and I little 1017. You, me, and the rest of the folks that can't log in, we'd better make cookies as well.
With some simple math, it was easy to see this coming.
Between collectors editions and standard editions, 125,000 copies would have been a very SMALL production run. It would take 20,000 just to make sure every game stop in NA had 2 copies, generally they receive 5. Adding in, Amazon, Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Target, that would essentially be the bare minimum of a first run of copies to make sure that if you went into a store to buy it, they would have received at least one copy.
Ignore digital downloads for a moment. Lets look at that, 125,000 physical copies for the US(most games do a 300,000 first run, but lets assume they were honest when they said they thought no one would show up to the party.)
Given that number, 125,000 copies out there. for NA alone, Sorry EU, I don't know enough about your production runs to hazard a guess.
Server capacity for NA 125,000 (5000 logged on at a time X 25)
If JUST physical copy holders existed, this would have worked. But, why would you set up a world to JUST EXACTLY hold the people with physical copies.... and then open it to pre-order, and be surprised you got full really stinking fast?
I'm not terribly upset, I just find it VERY hard to believe NO ONE looked at the numbers and saw this coming.....
So for now.... 1017, you and I will have lunch, and later tea.... but I do hope you understand this is just a little thing on the side. I'm only truly happy when I don't see you at all.....
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It is not that easy to classify. All you can do is calculate with Dummy numbers and get prepared for a maybe worst-case. I didn't think there will be that much probs, either...
That was a great read, you sir have a bit of hilarity mixed in while stating what seems to be one of the biggest flaws with having more Japanese server than the NA/EU servers combined. I can't believe that when designing a game that not a single person would have looked at the numbers and thought...... this doesn't seem to add up, but who knows maybe no one though that.
Oh I love math first thing in the afternoon. I was told to move to japan as well and currently playing on jp servers, but it's not the same I miss first toon I worked soo hard on.
^ and I for one didn't pre order the game till the day of, millions of other could have followed suit, "They should have know the numbers from beta" is a bogus statement at this point.
It really seemed during beta 4 this was gonna be a problem. Why it only lasted 3 days just 1 week from launch was what blew my mind.
Lets stress test our servers. Uh oh we have a problem. No more testing! LAUNCH!
^It would cost tons of money to delay the launch. plus, i guess the beta server weren't full throtel, either.
I admit, I was bored and had time to look up "how game stops in the US" and "How many walmarts in the US"
The reason I ignored digital downloads is that physical presence on store shelves is as much for advertising as it is for sales. So you can safely assume any boxes not sold, would be made up for by a digital copy. BTW, after adding in store copies, my numbers only left over 15,000 physical copies for Amazon.
Alora Price: There are 25 NA/EU servers and 25 JP servers.
And I think people are forgetting some factors with the number crunching. A chunk of the people playing now were 1.0 players. They couldn't have known *exactly* how many of said players were going to come back to the game. Added, a lot of the preorders were 1.0 players that wanted early access for their account (only legacy was granted early access, and there were more 1.0 non-legacy accounts than vice versa).
Yoshida said that he himself greatly underestimated the number of players that would purchase the game or return to it and has apologized for it. Best we can hope for now is that next week's server expansion will ease the pressure on the servers a bit.
Also, I was 1017'd from my JP server last night, so it's not just NA/EU servers that have been hammered.
I would pay money to see one of the developers or yoshida himself rage quit due to 1017.
That would actually be excellent PR.... mingling with the common folk, feeling our pain etc...
